The week that began with the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader and ended with American bombers striking deeply buried Iranian military sites and over one million Lebanese fleeing their homes will be studied by historians for generations. President Donald Trump stands at the center of it, demanding unconditional surrender, promising to choose Iran’s next leader, and authorizing the most ambitious American military campaign since the invasion of Iraq. How did the world arrive at this moment?
The immediate trigger was the surprise attack that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader of more than three decades. The joint US-Israeli operation targeted Iran’s highest leadership, a crossing of a threshold that previous administrations had carefully avoided. The killing immediately triggered retaliatory responses from Iran, Hezbollah, and Iranian proxies across the region, setting in motion an escalatory cycle that has driven the conflict through its first seven days with undiminished intensity.
The military response to that first strike has been relentless. American B-2 stealth bombers have struck Iran’s buried missile infrastructure with dozens of 2,000-pound penetrating munitions. A large Iranian naval vessel has been hit and possibly sunk. Israel has issued mass evacuation orders in Lebanon covering over one million people and systematically struck Hezbollah’s command and logistics infrastructure. The defense secretary has promised a dramatic surge in US firepower. The IDF chief has promised new phases and surprises.
Iran has responded on every available front. Missiles and drones have struck US military bases across four Gulf states. Six American soldiers have been killed. Additional missiles have been aimed at Israel. Hezbollah has maintained its military campaign in Lebanon. Iranian state television has broadcast defiance and mourning. The leadership council has begun planning succession. The Revolutionary Guards have promised new weapons. At every point where capitulation might have been expected, Iran has chosen to fight on.
The world that existed before the killing of Khamenei no longer exists. The rules, assumptions, and equilibria that governed Middle Eastern security for decades have been shattered. What replaces them depends on the outcome of a war that is still very much in progress. Trump has promised a better Middle East on the other side of this conflict. The people living through it — in Tehran, Beirut, Kuwait City, and Tel Aviv — are hoping he is right, because the cost of being wrong is being paid in their lives.