The U.S.-China dispute over Taiwan’s status serves as a powerful litmus test for the competing forces of globalism and nationalism in the 21st century. The Trump administration’s decision will signal whether the U.S. prioritizes its role in the global system of alliances and democratic norms or a narrower, nation-state-centric view of its interests.
A decision to uphold the current, ambiguous policy would reflect a more globalist perspective. It would acknowledge that the security of a democratic partner like Taiwan is linked to a broader international order, and that U.S. credibility within its alliance network is a vital national asset. This approach sees American strength as intertwined with the health of the global system it leads.
Conversely, a decision to concede to China’s demand in exchange for a bilateral trade deal would be a clear victory for a nationalist framework. This approach, central to the “America First” doctrine, prioritizes direct, tangible benefits for the United States, even if it comes at the expense of allies or abstract principles like the “rules-based order.” It views foreign policy as a series of zero-sum transactions between nation-states.
China’s demand is cleverly designed to appeal to this nationalist impulse. It offers a simple trade: give us a political win on Taiwan, and we will give you an economic win on trade. It is a direct invitation for the U.S. to abandon its global leadership role in favor of a narrower, more immediate gain.
The outcome of this litmus test will be telling. It will reveal the extent to which the nationalist tide has reshaped American foreign policy and whether the U.S. still sees its own security and prosperity as being inextricably linked to the fate of its democratic partners around the world.