The UK government appears to have made a costly miscalculation in its dealings with Donald Trump, underestimating his administration’s resolve to pursue its “America First” trade agenda even at the expense of a close ally. The strategy of relying on a “special relationship” and a royal charm offensive has proven to be a poor substitute for a legally binding, comprehensive trade agreement.
The miscalculation seems to have been twofold. First, there was an overreliance on personal assurances. Trump’s promise of “preferential treatment” for the UK pharma industry, made in May, was seemingly taken at face value. The subsequent 100% tariff threat shows that such promises are conditional and easily reversible.
Second, there was a failure to appreciate the depth of the administration’s commitment to onshoring. The UK may have believed that its status as a key strategic partner would grant it an exemption from this policy. It has now learned that the onshoring agenda is applied universally, and the only way to get favorable treatment is to align with it by investing in US manufacturing.
The result of this miscalculation is a full-blown diplomatic and economic crisis. The government is now in a reactive mode, scrambling to salvage a situation that might have been prevented with a more clear-eyed assessment of its negotiating partner.
This episode will likely force a major rethink in UK foreign and trade policy. The belief that historical ties and soft power can trump hard-nosed economic nationalism has been shattered. The painful lesson is that when dealing with the current US administration, one must plan for the worst-case scenario and leave nothing to chance.